Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change

1995/12/01 by J. Lean, J. Beer, Raymond S. Bradley · 10 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric Ozone and Climate #Atmospheric sciences #Climate change #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Environmental science #Forcing (mathematics) #Geology #Irradiance #Northern Hemisphere #Oceanography #Optics #Physics #Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics #Solar cycle #Solar irradiance #Solar maximum #Solar minimum #Solar variation #Southern Hemisphere

paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/95gl03093

openalex publication_date 1995/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

Solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiances are reconstructed annually from 1610 to the present. This epoch includes the Maunder Minimum of anomalously low solar activity (circa 1645–1715) and the subsequent increase to the high levels of the present Modern Maximum. In this reconstruction, the Schwabe (11‐year) irradiance cycle and a longer term variability component are determined separately, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre‐industrial period from 1610 to 1800, implying a predominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970.

Citations

• Global‐scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales
• The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle
• 'Little Ice Age' summer temperature variations: their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends

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• Hockey stick graph (global temperature) [wikipedia]