Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”

1989/06/01 by Shinsuke Shimojo, Shinichi Ichikawa, Shin'Ichi Ichikawa · 44 citations
Arts and Humanities · Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Mathematics · Psychology · #Artificial intelligence #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Cognitive psychology #Computer science #Context (archaeology) #Counterintuitive #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Epistemology #Mathematical economics #Mathematics #Philosophy #Philosophy and History of Science #Probabilistic logic #Psychology

paper · doi:10.1016/0010-0277(89)90012-7

published in Cognition 32(1), 1-24 (Elsevier BV)

crossref issued 1989/06/01 · crossref published 1989/06/01 · crossref published-print 1989/06/01 · openalex publication_date 1989/06/01 · crossref created 2002/10/08 · crossref deposited 2025/09/05 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · crossref indexed 2026/03/11 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Citations

• Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Cited by

• Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
• When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism
• Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.
• Three prisoners problem [wikipedia]