2009/12/21 by J. C. Hargreaves, J. D. Annan · 25 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Geology and Paleoclimatology Research #Climate variability and models #Isotope Analysis in Ecology #Paleoclimatology #Climatology #Last Glacial Maximum #Holocene #Climate change #Precipitation #Forcing (mathematics) #Climate model #Monsoon #Environmental science #Before Present #Geology #Geography #Oceanography #Meteorology
paper · pdf · doi:10.5194/cp-5-803-2009
published in Climate of the past 5(4), 803-814 (Copernicus Publications)
openalex publication_date 2009/12/21 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/26
Abstract. We use an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 AGCM with slab-ocean to explore the extent to which mid-Holocene simulations are relevant to predictions of future climate change. The results are compared with similar analyses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial control climate. We suggest that the paleoclimate epochs can provide some independent validation of the models that is also relevant for future predictions. Considering the paleoclimate epochs, we find that the stronger global forcing and hence larger climate change at the LGM makes this likely to be the more powerful one for estimating the large-scale changes that are anticipated due to anthropogenic forcing. The phenomena in the mid-Holocene simulations which are most strongly correlated with future changes (i.e., the mid to high northern latitude land temperature and monsoon precipitation) do, however, coincide with areas where the LGM results are not correlated with future changes, and these are also areas where the paleodata indicate significant climate changes have occurred. Thus, these regions and phenomena for the mid-Holocene may be useful for model improvement and validation.