2026/04/21 by Useong Shin · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #q-fin.GN
arxiv published 2026/04/21 · arxiv updated 2026/05/24
Put-call parity is risk-neutral at terminal payoff, but its enforcement is path-dependent and capital-using. I test whether the SPX and RUT carry gap is explained by OIS-based funding, volatility, trading-friction, and financial-condition variables, or also by residual outside-option information. Adding IEFA, IGOV, and IAU improves in-sample and leave-one-year-out fit after U.S.-centered controls. Gains survive broad-dollar neutralization, alternative blocks, PCA, residualization, and nested horizon selection. Results support reduced-form P-Q alignment: finite-capital parity enforcement reflects physical-measure investment opportunities, not payoff-level no-arbitrage failure.