2005/02/01 by Michael Mousseau · 1 citation
Social Sciences · Mathematics · #Political Conflict and Governance #International Relations and Foreign Policy #Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East #Democracy #Null hypothesis #Convention #Test (biology) #Positive economics #Field (mathematics) #Civilization #Economics #Economic Justice #Political science #Neoclassical economics #Law #Econometrics #Politics #Mathematics
paper · doi:10.1080/07388940590915327
openalex publication_date 2005/02/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/15
Stuart Bremer counseled against the falsificationist convention of testing new models against the null hypothesis of no model. Instead, new models should be compared against prior beliefs, and theories should compete, whenever possible, on a field of equivalent test conditions. This article applies Stuart Bremer's notion of comparative theory testing by comparing a new model of contract norms with the prior institutionalist model of democratic peace. On a field of equivalent test conditions it is found that the hypothesis for contract norms (that the democratic peace is contingent upon economic development) is thousands of times more likely to be true than the hypothesis for institutionalist theory (that democracy pacifies all dyads regardless of economic conditions). Democracy appears to be a significant force for peace only in dyads that are above the median income: the richest 45%. The results indicate that scholars of war should update the widespread prior belief that democracy, alone, causes peace.