2011/03/22 by Eli Berman, Michael Callen, Joseph Felter +1 · 2 citations
Social Sciences · #Demographic economics #Development economics #Economic growth #Economics #Government (linguistics) #Insurgency #Law #Order (exchange) #Political Conflict and Governance #Political science #Politics #Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East #Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence #Unemployment
paper · doi:10.1177/0022002710393920
openalex publication_date 2011/03/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active insurgencies. The authors test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly available measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied forces and (2) violence that kill civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces ( p < .05 percent). There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. The authors identify several potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on one hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in these three conflicts.