2016/10/10 by Ning Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton +1 · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing #Storm surge #Flood myth #Return period #Storm #Environmental science #Climatology #Coastal flood #Hazard #Sea level #Climate change #Meteorology #Oceanography #Geology #Sea level rise #Geography
paper · pdf · doi:10.1073/pnas.1604386113
openalex publication_date 2016/10/10 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.