Decision-theoretic limits on earthquake prediction

1997/12/01 by Robert Matthews · 4 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Computer Science · Mathematics · #Earthquake Detection and Analysis #Seismology and Earthquake Studies #earthquake and tectonic studies #Earthquake prediction #Geology #Basis (linear algebra) #Action (physics) #Seismology #Computer science #Mathematics

paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.1997.tb06596.x

openalex publication_date 1997/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30

Abstract

I apply Decision Theory to the question of how accurate earthquake predictions must be to serve as a reliable basis for action. Even with optimistic estimates of the parameters involved, the lower bound on the required accuracy is extraordinarily demanding, being over 10 times higher than that of current meteorological forecasts. Given the abruptly self-organizing nature of earthquakes, it is extremely unlikely that precursors can attain such levels of accuracy. I therefore conclude that prediction of major earthquakes is, in any practical sense, impossible.

Citations

• The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors

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