2017/03/01 by Paul Webb, Tim Bale, Mónica Poletti · 1 citation
Social Sciences · #Political and Economic history of UK and US #Social Policy and Reform Studies #Populism, Right-Wing Movements #Coalition government #Political science #Independence (probability theory) #Political economy #Voting #Government (linguistics) #Realigning election #General election #Public administration #Grassroots #Austerity #Law #Politics #Sociology #Communism #Socialism
paper · pdf · doi:10.1177/0263395717697344
openalex publication_date 2017/03/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
A survey of ordinary members of the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party carried out in 2013 revealed that nearly 30% of them would seriously consider voting for the country’s radical right wing populist party (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)). However, we show that at the general election in 2015, only a very small proportion of them – around 5% of Tory grassroots members – actually did so, driven it seems mainly by alienation from the leadership and David Cameron in particular, as well as, perhaps, by concerns about the Conservative-led government’s austerity policies. However, those party members who did eventually vote for UKIP were still much more likely to have expressed a propensity to vote for it in 2013 than those who did not. Since the Conservative Party has not experienced the same increase in membership as some of its competitors, and since members are an important part of parties’ electoral campaigning, they should avoid alienating those members they do have – something of which Theresa May appears to be aware.