Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long‐Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post‐1940 U.S. Population

2006/08/01 by Douglas Almond · 3 citations
Medicine · Social Sciences · #Birth, Development, and Health #Intergenerational and Educational Inequality Studies #Health disparities and outcomes #Pandemic #In utero #Educational attainment #Socioeconomic status #Influenza pandemic #Demography #Population #Human capital #Medicine #Demographic economics #Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) #Economics #Fetus #Environmental health #Pregnancy #Economic growth #Biology #Disease #Internal medicine #Sociology

paper · doi:10.1086/507154

openalex publication_date 2006/08/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic as a natural experiment for testing the fetal origins hypothesis. The pandemic arrived unexpectedly in the fall of 1918 and had largely subsided by January 1919, generating sharp predictions for long‐term effects. Data from the 1960–80 decennial U.S. Census indicate that cohorts in utero during the pandemic displayed reduced educational attainment, increased rates of physical disability, lower income, lower socioeconomic status, and higher transfer payments compared with other birth cohorts. These results indicate that investments in fetal health can increase human capital.

Citations

• The 1918 Influenza Epidemic's Effects on Sex Differentials in Mortality in the United States
• The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States
• From home to hospital: The evolution of childbirth in the United States, 1928–1940
• A socially neutral disease? Individual social class, household wealth and mortality from Spanish influenza in two socially contrasting parishes in Kristiania 1918–19
• The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime
• Were Compulsory Attendance and Child Labor Laws Effective? An Analysis from 1915 to 1939

Cited by

• School spirit: Exploring the long-term effects of the U.S. temperance movement on educational attainment
• Mortality From the Influenza Pandemic of 1918–1919: The Case of India
• Spanish flu [wikipedia]