2014/09/04 by Matthew Biggerstaff, Simon Cauchemez, Carrie Reed +2 · 657 citations
Mathematics · Medicine · #2019-20 coronavirus outbreak #Biology #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) #Disease #Ecology #Infectious disease (medical specialty) #Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 #Influenza Virus Research Studies #Influenza pandemic #Medical microbiology #Medicine #Outbreak #Pandemic #Parasitology #Pathology #Reproduction #Respiratory viral infections research #Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) #Tropical medicine #Veterinary medicine #Virology #Virus #Zoology
paper · pdf · doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480
published in BMC Infectious Diseases 14(1), 480 (BioMed Central)
openalex publication_date 2014/09/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06
BACKGROUND: The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. RESULTS: The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47-2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53-1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56-1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30-1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1. CONCLUSIONS: These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic.