2014/10/02 by Russell Hopfenberg · 1 citation
Nursing · Medicine · Environmental Science · #Child Nutrition and Water Access #Birth, Development, and Health #Water Resources and Sustainability #Population #Demographic transition #Birth rate #Agriculture #Productivity #Carrying capacity #Economics #Population model #Natural resource economics #Fertility #Demography #Ecology #Economic growth #Biology #Sociology
paper · doi:10.1080/14888386.2014.973904
openalex publication_date 2014/10/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2025/11/06
The classic demographic transition model illustrates the pattern of birth and death rates over time, shifting from high and equivalent to low and equivalent, with population increasing sharply during this transition as a society industrialises. However, the model has a limited temporal frame and cultural scope. It also overlooks that human population trends follow agricultural productivity. Because food is an essential carrying capacity variable and a fundamental economic driver, as food availability is increased the population increases leading to severe biodiversity loss. The current analysis expands the classic model, taking into account all of human history, and highlighting the basic carrying capacity foundations of fertility changes. This comprehensive model shows birth and death rates in Stage A as low and equivalent before the advent of the agricultural revolution. Stage A is followed by Stages B and C, in which the increasing birth rate precedes the increasing death rate, causing a rise in population. The stages then progress as in the classic demographic transition model.