2020/01/22 by Eneko Axpe, Doreen Chan, Metadel Abegaz +4 · 1 citation
Medicine · Environmental Science · Engineering · #Spaceflight effects on biology #Bone health and osteoporosis research #Climate Change and Health Impacts #Spaceflight #Mars Exploration Program #Human spaceflight #Bone mineral #Aeronautics #Femoral neck #Crew #Osteopenia #Space medicine #Medicine #Osteoporosis #Bone density #Spacecraft #Physical therapy #Engineering #Aviation medicine #Astrobiology #Physics #Aerospace engineering #Internal medicine
paper · pdf · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0226434
openalex publication_date 2020/01/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
A round-trip human mission to Mars is anticipated to last roughly three years. Spaceflight conditions are known to cause loss of bone mineral density (BMD) in astronauts, increasing bone fracture risk. There is an urgent need to understand BMD progression as a function of spaceflight time to minimize associated health implications and ensure mission success. Here we introduce a nonlinear mathematical model of BMD loss for candidate human missions to Mars: (i) Opposition class trajectory (400-600 days), and (ii) Conjunction class trajectory (1000-1200 days). Using femoral neck BMD data (N = 69) from astronauts after 132-day and 228-day spaceflight and the World Health Organization's fracture risk recommendation, we predicted post-mission risk and associated osteopathology. Our model predicts 62% opposition class astronauts and 100% conjunction class astronauts will develop osteopenia, with 33% being at risk for osteoporosis. This model can help in implementing countermeasure strategies and inform space agencies' choice of crew candidates.