2020/12/01 by Sayedeh Sara Sayedi, Benjamin W. Abbott, Brett F. Thornton +29 · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Chemistry · #Climate change and permafrost #Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Permafrost #Subsea #Climate change #Environmental science #Arctic #Representative Concentration Pathways #Total organic carbon #Hydrology (agriculture) #Oceanography #Climatology #Physical geography #Climate model #Geology #Environmental chemistry #Geography #Chemistry
paper · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
openalex publication_date 2020/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Abstract The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH 4 ), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH 4 . Current fluxes of CH 4 and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr −1 , respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO 2 e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.