Near‐surface permafrost degradation: How severe during the 21st century?

2007/05/09 by G. Delisle · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climate change and permafrost #Cryospheric studies and observations #Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena #Permafrost #Terrain #Geology #Arctic #Physical geography #Earth science #Methane #Oceanography #Geography #Ecology #Cartography

paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2007gl029323

openalex publication_date 2007/05/09 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/22

Abstract

A previously presented model on nearly complete near‐surface permafrost degradation in the Arctic during the 21st century is critically reviewed. An alternative model with a more complete mathematical formulation of the physical processes acting in permafrost terrain is presented, which suggests that permafrost will mostly prevail in this century in areas north of 70°N. Furthermore, permafrost will survive at depth in most areas between 60° to 70°N. Based on paleoclimatic data and in consequence of this study, it is suggested that scenarios calling for massive release of methane in the near future from degrading permafrost are questionable.

Cited by

• Permafrost [wikipedia]

Related

• The evolution of Arctic permafrost over the last 3 centuries from ensemble simulations with the CryoGridLite permafrost model
• Sensitivity of a model projection of near‐surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil organic matter
• Developments in Permafrost Science and Engineering in Response to Climate Warming in Circumpolar and High Mountain Regions, 2019–2024
• Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic
• Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate changeThis article is one of a selection of papers from The Dynamics of Change in Alaska’s Boreal Forests: Resilience and Vulnerability in Response to Climate Warming.