Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks?

2009/02/12 by Jason Lyall · 505 citations
Psychology · Social Sciences · #Artillery #Computer security #Counterintuitive #Criminology #Geography #Political Conflict and Governance #Political science #Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East #Psychology #Social psychology #State (computer science) #Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence

paper · doi:10.1177/0022002708330881

published in Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(3), 331-362 (SAGE Publishing)

openalex publication_date 2009/02/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/26

Abstract

Does a state's use of indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks? To date, most existing theories and empirical studies have concluded that such violence is highly counterproductive because it creates new grievances while forcing victims to seek security, if not safety, in rebel arms. This proposition is tested using Russian artillery fire in Chechnya (2000 to 2005) to estimate indiscriminate violence's effect on subsequent patterns of insurgent attacks across matched pairs of similar shelled and nonshelled villages. The findings are counterintuitive. Shelled villages experience a 24 percent reduction in posttreatment mean insurgent attacks relative to control villages. In addition, commonly cited “triggers” for insurgent retaliation, including the lethality and destructiveness of indiscriminate violence, are either negatively correlated with insurgent attacks or statistically insignificant.

Citations

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