2026/06/18 by Sara A. Safari, Christoph Schmidhuber · 2 voices
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Physics and Astronomy · #q-fin.ST #cond-mat.stat-mech #physics.data-an #q-fin.MF #q-fin.RM
We forecast future volatilities and correlations of financial markets based on the current trends in these markets. This complements previous work that models future expected returns by a cubic polynomial of the current trend strength. Empirically, we observe that volatilities and correlations tend to increase day after day in times of strong up- or down-trends. This effect is particularly pronounced in down-trends. It can be accurately quantified by quadratic polynomials of today's trend strengths, which refine common mean-reversion models of volatilities and correlations. Our results improve the prediction of market risk by accounting for market trends. They also support a recent proposal to model financial markets by a lattice gas near its critical point.