2004/09/01 by Xavier Sala-i-Martín, Gernot Doppelhofer, Ronald I. Miller · 3 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #Economic Growth and Productivity #Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth #Economic Policies and Impacts #Econometrics #Economics #Bayesian probability #Term (time) #Robustness (evolution) #Mathematics #Per capita #Ordinary least squares #Regression #Bayesian inference #Statistics
paper · doi:10.1257/0002828042002570
openalex publication_date 2004/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29
This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It introduces and employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates by averaging OLS coefficients across models. The weights given to individual regressions have a Bayesian justification similar to the Schwarz model selection criterion. Of 67 explanatory variables we find 18 to be significantly and robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another three variables to be marginally related. The strongest evidence is for the relative price of investment, primary school enrollment, and the initial level of real GDP per capita.