2018/07/31 by Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe +2 · 2 citations
Business, Management and Accounting · Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Engineering · Medicine · Psychology · #Artificial intelligence #Big Data Technologies and Applications #Big Data and Business Intelligence #Blockchain Technology Applications and Security #Computer science #Engineering #Environmental health #Human health #Medicine #Operations research #Psychology
paper · pdf · doi:10.1613/jair.1.11222
openalex publication_date 2018/07/31 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI. This article is part of the special track on AI and Society.