Twenty Years of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis

2016/10/20 by Hüseyin Aytuğ, Merve Mavuş Kütük, Arif Oduncu +1 · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Global trade and economics #Global Financial Crisis and Policies #Economic Policies and Impacts

paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/jcms.12490

openalex publication_date 2016/10/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/02

Abstract

Abstract The paper studying the 1995 EU–Turkey Customs Union (CU) delivers a quantitative assessment of trade and GDP per capita effects of the CU on the Turkish economy. Our Synthetic Control Method based analysis reveals, contrary to the results of most studies in the literature, that the CU's effects have been substantial by any standards. In particular, the paper shows that in the absence of the EU–Turkey CU, Turkish exports to the EU and GDP per capita would have been 38 per cent and 13 per cent less, respectively.

Citations

• Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program
• Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union

Cited by

• European Union–Turkey Customs Union [wikipedia]

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