2010/03/17 by Martin Lindegren, Christian Möllmann, Anders Nielsen +3 · 1 citation
Environmental Science · #Marine and fisheries research #Isotope Analysis in Ecology #Marine Bivalve and Aquaculture Studies
paper · doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.0353
openalex publication_date 2010/03/17 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.