2017/06/22 by Stephen Parnell, Frank van den Bosch, T. R. Gottwald +1 · 1 citation
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · #Plant Pathogens and Resistance #Plant Virus Research Studies #Plant Pathogens and Fungal Diseases
paper · doi:10.1146/annurev-phyto-080516-035334
openalex publication_date 2017/06/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31
The rise in emerging pathogens and strains has led to increased calls for more effective surveillance in plant health. We show how epidemiological insights about the dynamics of disease spread can improve the targeting of when and where to sample. We outline some relatively simple but powerful statistical approaches to inform surveillance and describe how they can be adapted to include epidemiological information. This enables us to address questions such as: Following the first report of an invading pathogen, what is the likely incidence of disease? If no cases of disease have been found, how certain can we be that the disease was not simply missed by chance? We illustrate the use of spatially explicit stochastic models to optimize targeting of surveillance and control resources. Finally, we discuss how modern detection and diagnostic technologies as well as information from passive surveillance networks (e.g., citizen science) can be integrated into surveillance strategies.