2014/03/17 by Sérgio Moro, Paulo Cortez, Paulo Rita · 8 citations
Business, Management and Accounting · Decision Sciences · #Customer churn and segmentation #Technology Adoption and User Behaviour #Customer Service Quality and Loyalty
paper · doi:10.1016/j.dss.2014.03.001
openalex publication_date 2014/03/17 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
We propose a data mining (DM) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. A Portuguese retail bank was addressed, with data collected from 2008 to 2013, thus including the effects of the recent financial crisis. We analyzed a large set of 150 features related with bank client, product and social-economic attributes. A semi-automatic feature selection was explored in the modeling phase, performed with the data prior to July 2012 and that allowed to select a reduced set of 22 features. We also compared four DM models : logistic regression , decision trees (DTs), neural network (NN) and support vector machine . Using two metrics, area of the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and area of the LIFT cumulative curve (ALIFT), the four models were tested on an evaluation set, using the most recent data (after July 2012) and a rolling window scheme. The NN presented the best results (AUC = 0.8 and ALIFT = 0.7), allowing to reach 79% of the subscribers by selecting the half better classified clients. Also, two knowledge extraction methods, a sensitivity analysis and a DT, were applied to the NN model and revealed several key attributes (e.g., Euribor rate, direction of the call and bank agent experience). Such knowledge extraction confirmed the obtained model as credible and valuable for telemarketing campaign managers.