2020/06/17 by Paul R. Elsen, William B. Monahan, Eric R. Dougherty +1 · 1 citation
Environmental Science · #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management #Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay0814
openalex publication_date 2020/06/17 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/30
Protected areas (PAs) are essential to biodiversity conservation, but their static boundaries may undermine their potential for protecting species under climate change. We assessed how the climatic conditions within global terrestrial PAs may change over time. By 2070, protection is expected to decline in cold and warm climates and increase in cool and hot climates over a wide range of precipitation. Most countries are expected to fail to protect >90% of their available climate at current levels. The evenness of climatic representation under protection-not the amount of area protected-positively influenced the retention of climatic conditions under protection. On average, protection retention would increase by ~118% if countries doubled their climatic representativeness under protection or by ~102% if countries collectively reduced emissions in accordance with global targets. Therefore, alongside adoption of mitigation policies, adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.