1999/01/01 by Dean Lacy, Barry C. Burden · 140 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Candidacy #Computer science #Demographic economics #Demography #Econometrics #Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy #Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics #Law #Margin (machine learning) #Multinomial probit #Political science #Politics #Presidential election #Probit model #Sociology #Turnout #Victory #Voting
paper · doi:10.2307/2991792
published in American Journal of Political Science 43(1), 233 (Wiley)
openalex publication_date 1999/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/01
Including abstention as a choice in vote choice models enables one to calculate the votestealing and turnout effects of third-party candidates. A model of the vote including abstention also produces parameter estimates and marginal effects for some explanatory variables that differ from the results of a model that excludes abstention. We present two multinomial probit models of vote choice in the 1992 U.S. presidential election. One model includes abstention as a choice; the other does not. The model that includes abstention reveals that Ross Perot increased turnout by nearly three percentage points in 1992, and his candidacy decreased Clinton's margin of victory over Bush by seven percentage points. Under compulsory voting, Clinton's margin of victory barely increases, and Perot's vote share remains nearly constant.