Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

2019/10/02 by O. B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, Alan Robock +7 · 2 citations
Social Sciences · Engineering · Physics and Astronomy · #Nuclear Issues and Defense #Nuclear and radioactivity studies #Astronomical and nuclear sciences

paper · pdf · doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay5478

openalex publication_date 2019/10/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/03

Abstract

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

Citations

• Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict
• Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences
• Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions
• Environmental consequences of nuclear war
• Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism
• Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict
• Climate and Smoke: an Appraisal of Nuclear Winter
• Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts
• Climate Impact of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange: An Improved Assessment Based On Detailed Source Calculations
• Nuclear Winter Responses to Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE

Cited by

• Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation
• Nuclear winter [wikipedia]