2021/02/22 by Joshua M. Epstein, Epstein, Joshua M., Erez Hatna +3
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Influenza Virus Research Studies #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2102.11045
openalex publication_date 2021/02/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears evolve and interact in ways that shape distancing behavior, vaccine uptake, and their relaxation. These behavioral dynamics in turn can amplify or suppress disease transmission, which feeds back to affect behavior. The model reveals several coupled contagion mechanisms for multiple epidemic waves. Methodologically, the paper advances infectious disease modeling by including human behavioral adaptation, drawing on the neuroscience of fear learning, extinction, and transmission.