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A Free-Form Prediction for the Reappearance of Supernova Refsdal in the Hubble Frontier Fields Cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223

2015/04/30 by Jose M. Diego, Tom Broadhurst, Cuncheng Chen +7 · 1 citation
Physics and Astronomy · #astro-ph.CO

paper · pdf · doi:10.1093/mnras/stv2638

12 images, 11 pages. Mateches accepted version in MNRAS. MNRAS in press

arxiv created 2015/12/13 · arxiv updated 2015/12/23

Abstract

The massive cluster MACSJ1149.5+2223(z=0.544) displays five very large lensed images of a well resolved spiral galaxy at z\rm spect=1.491. It is within one of these images that the first example of a multiply-lensed supernova has been detected recently as part of the Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space. The depth of this data also reveals many HII regions within the lensed spiral galaxy which we identify between the five counter-images. Here we expand the capability of our free-form method to incorporate these HII regions locally, with other reliable lensed galaxies added for a global solution. This improved accuracy allows us to estimate when the Refsdal supernova will appear within the other lensed images of the spiral galaxy to an accuracy of ∼ 7%. We predict this supernova will reappear in one of the counter-images (RA=11:49:36.025, DEC=+22:23:48.11, J2000) and on November 1st 2015 (with an estimated error of ± 25 days) it will be at the same phase as it was when it was originally discovered, offering a unique opportunity to study the early phases of this supernova and to examine the consistency of the mass model and the cosmological model that have an impact on the time delay prediction.

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