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Piping Plover ( <i>Charadrius melodus</i> ) migration and breeding phenologies and nest survival in response to climate change

2026/05/01 by Elsa M. Forsberg, Joel G. Jorgensen, Mark P. Vrtiska · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Immunology and Microbiology · #Avian ecology and behavior #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Bird parasitology and diseases

paper · doi:10.1080/15594491.2026.2652111

Abstract

Many organisms, including certain threatened and endangered birds, are altering important life history events in response to climate change. The consequences of climate change pose additional conservation challenges to conventional threats (e.g., habitat loss, ecological traps, illegal harvest) that may be the source of initial declines. The Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) is a migratory shorebird that is recognized as threatened or endangered throughout its range in North America. We explored whether Piping Plovers are shifting migratory and breeding phenologies in response to weather and climate variables in Nebraska, USA, and determined whether relationships exist between nest success and those same variables, using a long-term nest monitoring dataset from 2008 to 2024 and a citizen science dataset from 1980 to 2024. We found little to no evidence that Piping Plovers have shifted migration phenology or nest initiation date, but nest initiation date advanced with warmer minimum temperatures. Nest survival decreased with later nest initiation date and increased with a higher proportion of above-mean temperatures during incubation and more positive Palmer Drought Severity Index score. Although our study did not find strong evidence of clear phenological shifts or acute survival consequences, our results provide a foundation for additional research. Furthermore, the Piping Plover breeding range includes different regions, which may experience different effects from climate change and longer-term datasets may reveal clearer patterns.

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