2015/04/30 by Mark C. Urban · 5 citations
Environmental Science · Psychology · #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Animal and Plant Science Education #Wildlife Ecology and Conservation
paper · doi:10.1126/science.aaa4984
openalex publication_date 2015/04/30 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04
Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.