2022/08/12 by Xingying Huang, Daniel L. Swain · 144 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climate change #Climate extremes #Climate model #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Ecology #Environmental science #Extreme weather #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Flood myth #Flooding (psychology) #Geography #Geology #Hazard #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Meteorology #Precipitation #Snow #Storm
paper · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abq0995
published in Science Advances 8(32), eabq0995 (American Association for the Advancement of Science)
openalex publication_date 2022/08/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23
Despite the recent prevalence of severe drought, California faces a broadly underappreciated risk of severe floods. Here, we investigate the physical characteristics of "plausible worst case scenario" extreme storm sequences capable of giving rise to "megaflood" conditions using a combination of climate model data and high-resolution weather modeling. Using the data from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding, but larger future increases are likely due to continued warming. We further find that runoff in the future extreme storm scenario is 200 to 400% greater than historical values in the Sierra Nevada because of increased precipitation rates and decreased snow fraction. These findings have direct implications for flood and emergency management, as well as broader implications for hazard mitigation and climate adaptation activities.