2015/10/04 by Ron W. Nielsen, Nielsen, Ron W.
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1510.00992
openalex publication_date 2015/10/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined episodes of hyperbolic growth: 10,000-500 BC, AD 500-1200 and AD 1400-1950, representing a total of about 89% of the past 12,000 years. It also reveals three demographic transitions: 500 BC-AD 500, AD 1200-1400 and AD 1950-present, representing the remaining 11% of the past 12,000 years. The first two transitions were between sustained hyperbolic trajectories. The current transition is to an unknown trajectory. There was never any form of dramatic transition from stagnation to growth, described often as a takeoff, because there was no stagnation in the growth of the world population. Correct understanding of the historical growth of human population is essential in the correct interpretation of the historical growth of income per capita.