A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century

2005/03/17 by S. Jay Olshansky, Douglas J. Passaro, Ronald C. Hershow +7 · 5 citations
Social Sciences · Business, Management and Accounting · Health Professions · #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis #Global Health Care Issues

paper · pdf · doi:10.1056/nejmsr043743

openalex publication_date 2005/03/17 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04

Abstract

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

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