What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico

2013/10/11 by Aaron Chalfin · 4 citations
Social Sciences · #Crime Patterns and Interventions #Migration and Labor Dynamics #Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies

paper · pdf · doi:10.1093/aler/aht019

openalex publication_date 2013/10/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

This paper identifies a causal effect of Mexican immigration on crime using an instrument that leverages temporal variation in rainfall in different regions in Mexico as well as persistence in regional Mexico–U.S. migration networks. The intuition behind the instrument is that deviations in Mexican weather patterns isolate quasi-random variation in the assignment of Mexican immigrants to U.S. cities. My findings indicate that Mexican immigration is associated with no appreciable change in the rates of either violent or property crimes in U.S. cities.

Citations

• Does Immigration Increase Homicide? Negative Evidence From Three Border Cities
• Sociological Criminology and the Mythology of Hispanic Immigration and Crime
• The immigration–crime relationship: Evidence across US metropolitan areas
• IMMIGRATION AND THE RECENT VIOLENT CRIME DROP IN THE UNITED STATES: A POOLED, CROSS‐SECTIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN AREAS*
• Is Immigration Responsible for the Crime Drop? An Assessment of the Influence of Immigration on Changes in Violent Crime Between 1990 and 2000
• Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the U. S. Labor Market
• Why are Immigrants' Incarceration Rates so Low? Evidence on Selective Immigration, Deterrence, and Deportation
• Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects
• Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration
• The Labor Demand Curve is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market

Cited by

• Do Immigrants Threaten US Public Safety?
• On the association between undocumented immigration and crime in the United States
• The Effect of Immigration from Mexico on Social Capital in the United States
• Immigration to the United States [wikipedia]