2016/03/28 by Alan S. Blinder, Mark W. Watson · 3 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #Market Dynamics and Volatility #Climate Change Policy and Economics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1257/aer.20140913
openalex publication_date 2016/03/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/11
The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. (JEL D72, E23, E32, E65, N12, N42)