2017/08/29 by Robert L. Ceres, Ceres, Robert L., Chris E. Forest +3
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1708.09023
openalex publication_date 2017/08/29 · openalex created_date 2022/10/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating\nsubstantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk\nmanagement strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes\nin storm surge statistics. Previous studies have used observations to identify\nchanges in past storm surge statistics. Here, we focus on the simple and\ndecision-relevant question: How fast can we learn from past and potential\nfuture storm surge observations about changes in future statistics? Using\nObserving System Simulation Experiments, we quantify the time required to\ndetect changes in the probability of extreme storm surge events. We estimate\nlow probabilities of detection when substantial but gradual changes to the\n100-year storm surge occur. As a result, policy makers may underestimate\nconsiderable increases in storm surge risk over the typically long lifespans of\nmajor infrastructure projects.\n