2021/03/24 by Moeen Mostafavi, Mostafavi, Moeen, Maria Phillips +7 · 1 citation
Social Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #FOS: Computer and information sciences
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2103.12984
openalex publication_date 2021/03/24 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Campaign analysis is an integral part of American democracy and has many\ncomplexities in its dynamics. Experts have long sought to understand these\ndynamics and evaluate campaign performance using a variety of techniques. We\nexplore campaign financing and standing in the polls as two components of\ncampaign performance in the context of the 2020 Democratic primaries. We show\nwhere these measures exhibit represent similar dynamics and where they differ.\nWe focus on identifying change points in the trend for all candidates using\njoinpoint regression models. We find how these change points identify major\nevents such as failure or success in a debate. Joinpoint regression reveals who\nthe voters support when they stop supporting a specific candidate. This study\ndemonstrates the value of joinpoint regression in political campaign analysis\nand it represents a crossover of this technique into the political domain\nbuilding a foundation for continued exploration and use of this method.\n