When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

2017/05/24 by Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Grace, Katja +7 · 4 voices · 223 citations
Business, Management and Accounting · Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Medicine · Psychology · #Applications of artificial intelligence #Artificial intelligence #Big Data Technologies and Applications #Big Data and Business Intelligence #Computer science #Data Quality and Management #Environmental health #Human health #Medicine #Political science #Psychology #cs.AI #cs.CY

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1705.08807

published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University) · Accepted by Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research (AI and Society Track). Minor update to refer to related work (page 5)

openalex publication_date 2017/05/24 · arxiv created 2018/05/03 · arxiv updated 2018/05/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05

Abstract

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.

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Discussions

• When Will Machines Exceed Human Performance? Survey of ML Researchers. [hn, 45 points, 50 comments]
• I’m here to make good on a promise from 3 years ago, reporting that arxiv.org/pdf/1705.088... ’s predictions were wrong AI still doesn’t outperform humans at translation (not surprising) though AI d [bsky, 10 points, 1 comments]
• When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts [hn, 5 points, 0 comments]
• [1705.08807] When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts [lobsters, 1 points, 0 comments]

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