2022/02/28 by Yu Feng, Zhenzhong Zeng, Timothy D. Searchinger +21 · 1 citation
Environmental Science · #Forest ecology and management #Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics #Forest Management and Policy
paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00854-3
openalex publication_date 2022/02/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04
Abstract Previous estimates of tropical forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century using satellite data typically focus on its magnitude, whereas regional loss trajectories and associated drivers are rarely reported. Here we used different high-resolution satellite datasets to show a doubling of gross tropical forest carbon loss worldwide from 0.97 ± 0.16 PgC yr −1 in 2001–2005 to 1.99 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 in 2015–2019. This increase in carbon loss from forest conversion is higher than in bookkeeping models forced by land-use statistical data, which show no trend or a slight decline in land-use emissions in the early twenty-first century. Most (82%) of the forest carbon loss is at some stages associated with large-scale commodity or small-scale agriculture activities, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia. We find that ~70% of former forest lands converted to agriculture in 2001–2019 remained so in 2020, confirming a dominant role of agriculture in long-term pan-tropical carbon reductions on formerly forested landscapes. The acceleration and high rate of forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century suggest that existing strategies to reduce forest loss are not successful; and this failure underscores the importance of monitoring deforestation trends following the new pledges made in Glasgow.