2010/07/07 by Simeon Djankov, Marta Reynal‐Querol · 1 citation
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Social Sciences · #Agricultural risk and resilience #Culture, Economy, and Development Studies #Political Conflict and Governance
paper · doi:10.1162/rest_a_00046
openalex publication_date 2010/07/07 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/22
Previous research has interpreted the correlation between per capita income and civil war as evidence that poverty is a main determinant of conflict. In this paper, we find that the relationship between poverty and civil war is spurious and is accounted for by historical phenomena that jointly determine income evolution and conflict. In particular, the statistical association between poverty and civil wars disappears once we include country fixed effects. Also, using cross‐section data for 1960 to 2000, we find that once historical variables like European settler mortality rates and the population density in 1500 are included in civil war regressions, poverty does not have an effect on civil wars. These results are confirmed using longer time series from 1825 to 2000.