Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change

2009/08/04 by Nicola Scafetta
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Air temperature #Atmospheric sciences #Climate change #Climate model #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Environmental science #Geology #Global temperature #Global warming #Mean radiant temperature #Paleoclimatology #Physics #Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics #Solar constant #Solar irradiance #Solar variation #Surface air temperature #Tree-ring climate responses #astro-ph.EP #physics.ao-ph #physics.geo-ph #physics.space-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2009.07.007

published as J.Atmos.Sol.Terr.Phys.71:1916-1923,2009 · 9 pages, 6 figures

openalex publication_date 2009/08/04 · arxiv created 2009/12/22 · arxiv updated 2014/11/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05

Abstract

The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: τ₁ =0.4 ± 0.1 yr, and τ₂= 8 ± 2 yr or τ₂=12 ± 3 yr. Since 1980 the solar contribution to climate change is uncertain because of the severe uncertainty of the total solar irradiance satellite composites. The sun may have caused from a slight cooling, if PMOD TSI composite is used, to a significant warming (up to 65% of the total observed warming) if ACRIM, or other TSI composites are used. The model is calibrated only on the empirical 11-year solar cycle signature on the instrumental global surface temperature since 1980. The model reconstructs the major temperature patterns covering 400 years of solar induced temperature changes, as shown in recent paleoclimate global temperature records.

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