2014/04/01 by Bent Flyvbjerg · 148 citations
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · #Boom #Complex Systems and Decision Making #Computer science #Construction Project Management and Performance #Download #Economics #Engineering #Finance #Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies #Liberian dollar #Management #Megaproject #Political science #Tera- #q-fin.GN
paper · pdf · doi:10.1002/pmj.21409
published in Project Management Journal 45(2), 6-19 (SAGE Publishing)
openalex publication_date 2014/04/01 · arxiv created 2014/08/29 · arxiv updated 2014/09/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
This paper takes stock of megaproject management, an emerging and hugely costly field of study, by first answering the question of how large megaprojects are by measuring them in the units of mega, giga, and tera, and concluding with how we are presently entering a new “tera era” of trillion-dollar projects. Second, total global megaproject spending is assessed, at US6 to US9 trillion annually, or 8% of the total global gross domestic product (GDP), which denotes the biggest investment boom in human history. Third, four “sublimes”—political, technological, economic, and aesthetic—are identified and used to explain the increased size and frequency of megaprojects. Fourth, the “iron law of megaprojects” is laid out and documented: Over budget, over time, over and over again. Moreover, the “break–fix model” of megaproject management is introduced as an explanation of the iron law. Fifth, Albert O. Hirschman's theory of the “Hiding Hand” is revisited and critiqued as unfounded and corrupting for megaproject thinking in both the academy and policy. Sixth, it is shown how megaprojects are systematically subject to “survival of the unfittest,” which explains why the worst projects get built rather than the best. Finally, it is argued that the conventional way of managing megaprojects has reached a “tension point,” in which tradition is being challenged and reform is emerging.