Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

2011/08/19 by Noelle I. Samia, Kyrre Kausrud, Hans Heesterbeek +4 · 2 citations
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Medicine · Agricultural and Biological Sciences · #Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research #Zoonotic diseases and public health #Ethnobotanical and Medicinal Plants Studies

paper · doi:10.1073/pnas.1015946108

openalex publication_date 2011/08/19 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/26

Abstract

Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949-1995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.

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