2025/09/17 by Reinhold Hess, Hess, Reinhold
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #Data Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Precipitation Measurement and Analysis #Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2509.14081
openalex publication_date 2025/09/17 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We present, motivate, and evaluate Radar Maxima, a calibrated area-based probabilistic forecast product for heavy precipitation. It is designed to overcome inherent limitations of point-based forecasts, which often yield low probabilities for extreme events due to spatial displacement errors. The method aggregates radar-derived precipitation within 40 km neighbourhoods to statistically upscale forecasts from the ensemble system ICON-D2-EPS of DWD. Evaluation considers both objective verification metrics and feedback from operational weather forecasters based on case studies. Verification shows improved predictability, reliability and forecast sharpness. Evaluation of forecasters confirmed operational value in some cases.