2021/06/29 by A. Hooijer, Ronald Vernimmen · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Coastal and Marine Dynamics #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23810-9
openalex publication_date 2021/06/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Abstract Coastal flood risk assessments require accurate land elevation data. Those to date existed only for limited parts of the world, which has resulted in high uncertainty in projections of land area at risk of sea-level rise (SLR). Here we have applied the first global elevation model derived from satellite LiDAR data. We find that of the worldwide land area less than 2 m above mean sea level, that is most vulnerable to SLR, 649,000 km 2 or 62% is in the tropics. Even assuming a low-end relative SLR of 1 m by 2100 and a stable lowland population number and distribution, the 2020 population of 267 million on such land would increase to at least 410 million of which 72% in the tropics and 59% in tropical Asia alone. We conclude that the burden of current coastal flood risk and future SLR falls disproportionally on tropical regions, especially in Asia.