Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises

2016/11/01 by Ilknur Zer, Jón Danı́elsson, Marcela Valenzuela · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Global Financial Crisis and Policies

paper · doi:10.17016/feds.2016.093

openalex publication_date 2016/11/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11

Abstract

We study the effects of volatility on financial crises by constructing a cross-country database spanning over 200 years. Volatility is not a significant predictor of crises whereas unusually high and low volatilities are. Low volatility is followed by credit build-ups, indicating that agents take more risk in periods of low financial risk consistent with Minsky hypothesis, and increasing the likelihood of a banking crisis. The impact is stronger when financial markets are more prominent and less regulated. Finally, both high and low volatilities make stock market crises more likely, while volatility in any form has no impact on currency crises.

Citations

• The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to“Standard” Theory
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Cited by

• Jon Danielsson [wikipedia]

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