2002/08/31 by Armin Bunde, Jan Eichner, Rathinaswamy Govindan +4
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Physics and Astronomy · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Evolution and Genetic Dynamics #Fractal and DNA sequence analysis #cond-mat.stat-mech #physics.ao-ph #physics.data-an
paper · pdf · doi:10.1016/s0378-4371(02)01050-6
published as In: ``Nonextensive Entropy - Interdisciplinary Applications'', edited by M. Gell-Mann and C. Tsallis, New York Oxford University Press, 2003 · 12 pages, 6 included EPS figures, added chapter 4
openalex publication_date 2002/11/01 · arxiv created 2003/05/27 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation C(s) of temperature variations separated by s days.We show that, contrary to previous expectations, C(s) decays for large s as a power law, C(s) ~ s^(-gamma). For continental stations, the exponent gamma is always close to 0.7, while for stations on islands gamma is around 0.4. In contrast to the temperature fluctuations, the fluctuations of the rainfall usually cannot be characterized by long-term power-law correlations but rather by pronounced short-term correlations. The universal persistence law for the temperature fluctuations on continental stations represents an ideal (and uncomfortable) test-bed for the state of-the-art global climate models and allows us to evaluate their performance. In addition, the presence of long-term correlations leads to a novel approach for evaluating the statistics of rare events.