2018/01/01 by Bentley B. Allan, Srdjan Vucetic, Ted Hopf · 159 citations
Social Sciences · #Aesthetics #China #Democracy #Development economics #Distribution (mathematics) #Economics #Gender studies #Hegemony #Identity (music) #Ideology #International Development and Aid #International Relations and Foreign Policy #Law #Order (exchange) #Philosophy #Political Conflict and Governance #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Power (physics) #Sociology
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s0020818318000267
published in International Organization 72(4), 839-869 (University of Cambridge)
openalex publication_date 2018/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25
Abstract Existing theories predict that the rise of China will trigger a hegemonic transition and the current debate centers on whether or not the transition will be violent or peaceful. This debate largely sidesteps two questions that are central to understanding the future of international order: how strong is the current Western hegemonic order and what is the likelihood that China can or will lead a successful counterhegemonic challenge? We argue that the future of international order is shaped not only by material power but also by the distribution of identity across the great powers. We develop a constructivist account of hegemonic transition and stability that theorizes the role of the distribution of identity in international order. In our account, hegemonic orders depend on a legitimating ideology that must be consistent with the distribution of identity at the level of both elites and masses. We map the distribution of identity across nine great powers and assess how this distribution supports the current Western neoliberal democratic hegemony. We conclude that China is unlikely to become the hegemon in the near term.