2022/12/27 by Gary Koop, Dimitris Korobilis
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Decision Sciences · #Market Dynamics and Volatility #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #Forecasting Techniques and Applications
paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/iere.12623
Abstract This article addresses the issue of inference in time‐varying parameter regression models in the presence of many predictors and develops a novel dynamic variable selection strategy. The proposed variational Bayes dynamic variable selection algorithm allows for assessing at each time period in the sample which predictors are relevant (or not) for forecasting the dependent variable. The algorithm is used to forecast inflation using over 400 macroeconomic, financial, and global predictors, many of which are potentially irrelevant or short‐lived. The new methodology is able to ensure parsimonious solutions to this high‐dimensional estimation problem, which translate into excellent forecast performance.