2016/01/15 by Steffen Lange, Peter Pütz, Thomas Kopp · 1 voice
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Economic Growth and Productivity #Energy, Environment, Economic Growth #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #econ.GN
paper · pdf · doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.011
arxiv published 2016/01/15 · arxiv updated 2016/01/15 · openalex publication_date 2018/02/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of economic growth, the majority of articles is based upon an implicit assumption of exponential growth. Few scholarly articles have addressed this issue so far. In order to shed light on this issue, we estimate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models based on Gross Domestic Product Per Capita data for 18 mature economies from 1960 to 2013. We compare the adequacy of linear and exponential growth models and conduct several robustness checks. Our fndings cast doubts on the widespread belief of exponential growth and suggest a deeper discussion on alternative economic grow theories.